Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that divided the country and triggered chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in universities but scarcely any government figures or advocates want to engage even with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. Each writes two pieces that aim for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions cover identity markers, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unification but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless official who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has has something to acquire from the other's positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
